tailwinds of a remarkable year and handsome investor returns, Indian equities are set for an eventful journey in 2024, with a slew of local and global cues -- varying from interest rates to Lok Sabha polls to geopolitical happenings. Analysts are of the view that the bull run in the domestic equity market will continue, and over the next 3-6 months, the benchmark indices -- Sensex and Nifty -- could climb up to 7 per cent. In 2023, the 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 11,399.52 points or 18.73 per cent, and the NSE Nifty climbed 3,626.1 points or 20 per cent.
Structural reforms, pro-people programmes and employment opportunities helped the economy get new vigour, the finance minister said. After contracting by 5.8 per cent in 2020-21, the economy recorded a growth of 9.1 per cent in 2021-22.
Moody's on Friday slashed India's GDP growth projections for 2022 to 7 per cent from 7.7 per cent earlier as the global slowdown and rising domestic interest rates will dampen economic momentum. This is the second time that Moody's Investors Service has cut India's growth estimates. In September, it had cut projections for the current year to 7.7 per cent from 8.8 per cent estimated in May. "For India, the 2022 real GDP growth projections have been lowered to 7 per cent from 7.7 per cent.
Most market analysts are expecting the momentum to shift towards 'quality' and 'growth' stocks in 2024 after the outperformance of 'value' stocks over the past three years. 'Value' stocks are generally well-established companies with steady profits that are trading at a discount to what they are intrinsically worth. Companies in sectors such as commodities, industrials, commercial vehicles and public sector units (PSUs) fall in this bracket.
Kansai Nerolac Paints has seen its market capitalisation (mcap) erode by over 5 per cent since May 3 after posting a subpar performance in the fourth quarter of 2023-24. Weighed down by stiff competition, the company has shed Rs 1,172 crore over the past two weeks in mcap. India's largest paint maker in terms of mcap, expects double-digit growth in the industrial segment and aims to maintain margins, but its performance in decorative paints could suffer amid competition.
Geopolitical events, macroeconomic data and quarterly earnings of corporates would guide the stock market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Stock markets will remain closed on Wednesday for Ram Navami. "This week promises to be crucial for the market as fresh worries about a potential conflict between Iran and Israel emerge.
They say that a stimulus package may not be necessary because, unlike last year's total lockdown, public transport, including the railways and airlines, is running and the restrictions on movement are localised and, in some cases, are partial rather than total.
Fitch Ratings on Tuesday retained India's economic growth forecast at 7 per cent for the current fiscal, but cut projections for the next two financial years saying the country is not impervious to global developments. In its December edition of the Global Economic Outlook, Fitch projected India's GDP to grow at 7 per cent in the current fiscal, at a slower rate of 6.2 per cent in 2023-24 and at 6.9 per cent in 2024-25. In September, Fitch projected 7 per cent growth for the current fiscal, followed by 6.7 per cent in 2023-24 and 7.1 per cent growth in 2024-25.
The benchmark Nifty and Sensex could see another 8-10 per cent from the current levels, said HDFC Securities in its outlook for equity markets in 2024. The brokerage said that the market movement in the next year will not be linear, and there will be more volatility. When asked about the market reaction to the General Elections in 2024, Dhiraj Relli, managing director and CEO of HDFC Securities, said more than the outcome of the elections, the market movement in the next three to four months will decide the market trajectory post elections.
Shares of low-cost airline IndiGo hit record high on the bourses soon after reports of pilot crisis at Vistara emerged. The development also saw airfares surge by around 25 per cent on select routes. Shares of IndiGo hit a lifetime high of ~3,68.5 on April 2, 2024, and has gained 2.4 per cent on the bourses in April.
Citing economic slowdown and political roadblocks to policy-making, rating agency S&P on Monday warned India could become the first BRIC nation to lose investment-grade rating.
'We emphasise the importance of not basing investment decisions solely on electoral outcomes.' 'Instead, focusing on investing in high-quality businesses capable of prospering regardless of the political landscape is paramount.'
India's CLI has been on the rise since October 2014.
Gold is an excellent asset class for diversification and should be included in all long-term portfolios.
All six members of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) monetary policy committee (MPC) expressed caution over food inflation during the December review, while two external members warned about high real interest rates as headline inflation approaches its target of 4 per cent. The central bank continued to maintain the status quo on both the repo rate and the stance in the December monetary policy. India's retail inflation in November rose to 5.5 per cent - its fastest pace in three months - due to higher food prices.
The uncertainty created by the jump in COVID-19 infections and localised lockdowns prompted RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das and other members of the rating setting panel MPC to unanimously vote for status quo in interest rates and an accommodative policy stance to support growth, as per minutes of the meeting released on Thursday. "The need of the hour is to effectively secure the economic recovery underway so that it becomes broad-based and durable," the Governor said during the three-day meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) which ended on April 7. The renewed jump in COVID-19 infections in several parts of the country and the associated localised and regional lockdowns add uncertainty to the growth outlook, he observed, as per the minutes of the meeting released by the central bank.
Alternative Investment Funds (AIFs) with a lock-in period performed better than the ones that allow investors to withdraw capital at any time. Close-ended schemes had a median return of 5.62 per cent in December, according to data from industry tracker PMSBazaar. The median returns for open-ended schemes were 3.91 per cent
International Monetary Fund Chief Economist Gita Gopinath tells Indivjal Dhasmana high-frequency indicators for the third quarter of 2021 indicate momentum in economic recovery in India.
Officials in the finance ministry are not happy with credit rating agency Fitch's revision of India's local currency outlook to negative from stable. Officials say Fitch's conclusion that the central government's fiscal deficit will rise to 4.5 per cent of gross domestic product in 2008-09, as against 2.8 per cent in the previous fiscal, is wrong.
India's economy grew 6.1 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022-23, pushing up the annual growth rate to 7.2 per cent, official data showed on Wednesday.
A cocktail of heatwave and upcoming cricketing events is expected to usher in the peak season for the country's largest beer maker, United Breweries. The beer maker, which has gained share in some key markets, will be a major beneficiary as April to July is an important period contributing to 40-45 per cent of its annual beer volumes. Going ahead, the T20 Cricket World Cup in June and the ongoing IPL will have a positive impact on volumes and should be able to offset the negative impact of elections on sales, experts believe.
It believes that there had been "little progress" in structural reforms.
Reflecting subdued global economic growth, India's outward foreign direct investment (FDI) fell by 33.3 per cent sequentially to $1.21 billion in August, compared to over $1.82 billion in July.
India's GDP is poised to accelerate to 5.5 per cent in 2014-15 on the back of improved performance in industry and services but it may take some time for the country to reach its potential growth rate, says an Asian Development Bank (ADB) report.
This is the first hike in about a decade, signaling a recovery.
'When the gold price rises rapidly, India's physical gold market remains on standby.'
India's sovereign credit ratings do not reflect the economy's fundamentals, the Economic Survey said on Friday and nudged the global agencies to become more transparent and less subjective in their ratings. The Economic Survey 2020-21, tabled in Parliament, said that sovereign credit ratings methodology must be amended to reflect economies' ability and willingness to pay their debt obligations, and suggested that developing economies must come together to address this bias and subjectivity inherent in sovereign credit ratings methodology. "Never in the history of sovereign credit ratings has the fifth largest economy in the world been rated as the lowest rung of the investment-grade (BBB-/Baa3). While sovereign credit ratings do not reflect the Indian economy's fundamentals, noisy, opaque and biased credit ratings damage FPI flows," the survey said.
'If their allocation to certain segments have become high due to strong returns over the past three-four years, they should rebalance their portfolios and bring them in line with their long-term asset allocation.'
'Indian single malts have a very specific character.' 'They are sweet when you take a frontal palette approach and change significantly with the addition of water.'
The net leasing of Grade-A commercial office space in India will stagnate this financial year at 32-34 million square feet, with global uncertainties brewing caution among key tenant categories, according to the latest Crisil Ratings report. Major seven cities in India - Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad, Kolkata, Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR), National Capital Region (NCR) and Pune - had Grade-A office space with an operational stock of around 705 million square feet as of March 2023. India's commercial office space is dominated by technology companies, with information technology (IT) and IT-enabled services (ITeS) companies occupying 42-45 per cent of the operational stock.
'They think quick fixes like internship in the private sector will help. 'In fact, internships have been going on for the last one decade.' 'In 2014-2015 itself, we had a ministry of skill development. None of the programmes have yielded results, still they are continuing with such schemes under some other name.' 'We don't see any seriousness on the part of the government to attack the problem of unemployment.'
Most analysts have downgraded the stock of SBI Cards and Payments (SBI Card) as the credit card issuer posted weak results during the December quarter (Q3) of financial year 2023-24 (FY24). The sub-par show, analysts said, was for the eighth straight quarter. With this, they have slashed their earnings estimates by as much as 20 per cent over FY24-26 amid near-term pressure points in the company's growth outlook.
Stating that a weak fiscal position continues to constrain India's sovereign ratings, Fitch said the next government's medium-term fiscal policy will be of particular importance from a rating perspective.
Consumer goods firms and auto companies are witnessing an upturn in rural demand, which had been lagging for most of FY24. Expectations of a bumper rabi crop harvest have helped turn the tide. The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) Monetary Policy Committee kept the repo rate unchanged last week, noting that as rural demand catches up, consumption is expected to support economic growth in 2024-25.
The Street's optimism on India's largest listed automotive maker by market capitalisation is not misplaced, given the robust wholesale performance in recent months and the strong 2023-24 (FY24) October-December (Q3) results.
The surge in investment in manufacturing seems to have prompted the International Monetary Fund to increase the gross domestic product growth forecast to 8.4 per cent for 2007.
The advanced economies have been experiencing their longest period of slow growth in many decades.
As temperatures soar across the country, amid searing heat wave, analysts see power demand hitting fresh record highs this year. The time, therefore, may be opportune to add related stocks on dips as higher demand boosts earnings visibility, they said. On April 18, India's electricity demand touched a new high of 216 gigawatts.
Among the Sensex firms, JSW Steel, Tata Steel, Tech Mahindra, Infosys, Wipro, Tata Consultancy Services, Nestle, HCL Technologies, HDFC Bank and Maruti were the major laggards. IndusInd Bank, ITC, Bharti Airtel and State Bank of India were among the winners.
Moody's has a 'Baa3' rating for India, with a positive outlook.
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